Sunday, 14 December 2008

Gain shall take the place of loss ( part 2 )

Interesting facts about the gathering recession gleaned from from today's Sunday papers:

China's exports in November fell by 10.3% relative to October. Chile's November exports fell by 21.2% relative to the previous month while Korea's fell 21.7%. The Economist forecasts that 29 economies will shrink in size during 2009.Most financial firms in London and New York are still forecasting GDP growth of 6-7% for China in 2009. I wonder how long those forecasts will last?

Air cargo volumes are down 11% in Asia and 5.4% in Europe from year earlier levels.

The Wall Street Journal is now reporting Obama aides saying that the stimulus plan will be between $700 Billion and $1 Trillion over 2 years.

Goldman is forecasting a drop in US GDP of 5% in Q4 2008.

The German government expects its economy to contract by 2% in 2009 - the worst recession since the war. The Deutsche Bank strategist is expecting a more severe 4% contraction in German GDP due to the absence of all those debt laden Brits and Americans who used to buy BMW's and Mercedes.

Ecuador has defaulted on its bonds. It exports 400,000 barrels of oil a day and has got used to $140 a barrel. $40 a barrel is quite a shock to the sytem.

Unemployment among Greek 18-25 year olds is 70% .

Travellers changing £200 at Birmingham airport this weekend will get Euro 197.13 in exchange. This is the first time ever that sterling has declined to a value of less than a euro . In May 2001 a £ would have bought Euro 1.74.

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